Market segmentation

The olive oil market has shown a robust growth in recent years, so robust that the global olive oil market size was valued at USD 15.11 billion in 2024 and it is projected to exhibit a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.82% during 2025-2033, reaching a value of USD 21.2 Billion by 2033. This growth is driven by the increasing demand in traditional markets and significant expansion in new regions such as North America and Asia. The global olive oil markets are mainly segmented into:

• Household consumption (52%)
• Industrial applications (38%)
• Emerging niche sectors (10%)

Figure : Source: Freepik

Household demand remains strongest globally and even more in the traditional Mediterranean markets where per capita consumption averages 12-14 liters annually. Industrial use is driven by food processing (such as ready to eat meals or sauces) and cosmetics. With the cosmetics use growing significantly due to olive oil’s antioxidant properties in skincare. Lastly, Emerging niche sectors, such as functional foods now account for €2.5 billion in annual sales, with polyphenol-rich extra virgin olive oils being positioned as a preventive health product.

Key challenges and opportunities

Challenges

• Climate Change: Adverse weather can have a huge impact on yields, this was especially noticeable with 2023 yields in Spain (world leading producer) dropping 35% due to drought.
• Price Volatility: The olive oil price is highly influenced and can fluctuate due to climate variations, pest infestations and diseases.
• Counterfeit: The olive oil market can suffer in its integrity with fraudulent labeling, dilution with cheaper oils and false origin claims. This challenge requires a need for clear certifications to combat frauds and guarantee quality.

Opportunities

• Health Trends: With the global increase in popularity of the Mediterranean diet, olive oil is increasingly seen as a superfood.
• Market Expansion: The rising demand for quality olive oil and exponential market growth in Asian and Latin American markets propose a substantial growth opportunity.
• Organic and Sustainable Product: There is a rising demand for organic, biodynamic and sustainable farming methods that aligns with current consumer values.

Current demand and market trends

According to the International Olive Council the olive oil production has been increasing, while some countries have recorded a significant increase in their production and, consequently, in their consumption. It is estimated that in the 2023/2024 marketing year the worldwide olive oil consumption was around 2.7 million metric tons, this consumption is expected to increase, surpassing 3 million metric tons in the 2024/2025 marketing year, with the EU accounting for over 43% of the total consumption. Following the overall growth in production and consumption of the olive oil market, some market trends are reflected in:

• Rising Health and Wellness: Olive oil, particularly extra virgin olive oil, is recognized for its monosaturated fats and antioxidants, which have been linked to reduced risk of heart disease, inflammation and other health benefits. As consumers growingly prioritize healthier dietary choices and medical professionals and nutritional experts recommend olive oil as a healthier substitute to less healthy fats in cooking and food preparation, the olive oil market grows in demand between numerous individuals.
• Sustainability and Organic Preferences: With the growing environmental awareness consumers look for products that align with sustainable and eco-friendly farming practices. According to that, the focus of the olive oil industry on sustainable cultivation and production practices, such as organic farming drive an increase in demand for this product.
• Premiumization: As concern for healthier dietary options grows, consumers look for higher quality in their products. This is reflected in the growth in demand for extra virgin and organic olive oils, so much that Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) now dominates many retails shelfs, motivating producers to differentiate based on quality and origin.
• Eco-labelling and Transparency: Consumers seek for traceability and ethical production, providing an important role for authenticity, certificates of origin and other certificates.
• Innovation and Functional Foods: Introduction of new product formats, such as single-serve, infused/flavoured oils with added herbs or vitamins are an attractive variation in the market.

Leading production countries

In the crop year of 2023/2024, it is estimated that the olive oil production reached 2,564,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 7% (-196,000 t), if we compare it to the previous year. Nonetheless, according to official country data and estimates from the IOC Executive Secretariat the world production for the 2024/2025 crop year could suffer an increase of 32% on the previous year, reaching 3,375,500 tonnes.

IOC member countries hold a notable strength in olive oil production, as it is estimated that these member countries produced a total of 2,404,000 tonnes, which reflects on a 94% of the world total production for the 2023/24 crop year.

Figure : Source: Freepik

Following, are the top 10 leading olive oil production countries (2023-2024):